The challenges ahead are clear. In order to combat climate change, the steel industry must transition to “green”. As a technology supplier, we have made this challenge our mission at SMS. However, the path to green steel depends on a variety of variables, from steel demand to energy supply to the availability of raw materials. In this article, we look to the future and discuss different scenarios.
Let’s start with the most important question, how much steel will the world need by 2050? There are now 8 billion people on the earth, and about 1.8 billion tons of steel are “consumed” every year. In other words, the per capita annual steel consumption is roughly 222 kilograms. However, this figure varies greatly across regions, with apparent steel consumption per capita ranging from 310 kilograms in Europe to around 30 kilograms in Africa.
The United Nations predicts that the global population will be close to 10 billion in 2050. Based on the current apparent steel consumption per capita, approximately 2.2 billion tons of steel will need to be produced every year. However, many forecasts also suggest a surge in per capita steel demand in densely populated regions such as India or Africa, which would push steel production to around 2.75 billion tonnes per year.
At the same time, the transformation of the energy grid towards renewable energy will change the demand for steel. Currently, only 1% to 3% of steel is used in energy infrastructure. However, this figure is expected to rise significantly to over 10%, particularly with the construction of wind turbines or photovoltaic systems. The booming electrification trend will also increase demand for silicon steel.
So, how can we produce more steel while also reducing CO2 emissions? One entry point is existing steel mill facilities. However, due to the long investment cycle, factories and equipment can only be updated gradually.
In 2022, 71% (1.347 billion tons) of steel will be produced through the traditional blast furnace and converter (BOF) process route. This process produces an average of about 1.9 tons of direct carbon dioxide emissions for every ton of steel produced. 23% of total steel production (or 412 million tons) is produced through the electric furnace scrap process route (average CO2 emission intensity per ton of steel is 140 kg). The direct reduction process accounts for about 6% of the steel production, and the carbon dioxide emissions per ton of steel are about 650 kilograms.
For this purpose, two interdependent solutions are available for blast furnace decarbonization, Blue Blast Furnace and EASyMelt. Blue blast furnaces are always an ideal first step. They have the advantage of low investment costs and therefore the potential to rapidly cut carbon emissions by around 15%. The distinctive features of the Blue Blast Furnace are the production of syngas and the injection of syngas through a newly constructed envelope in the lower shaft area of the blast furnace. Synthesis gas, mainly composed of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, can be used as a reducing gas to replace coke and promote the reduction of iron-containing charge in the furnace body area.
This reducing gas can be produced by a variety of techniques. One of them is a new reforming process, in which coke oven gas and blast furnace gas undergo so-called dry reforming in a reforming furnace. In this process, methane, carbon dioxide and water vapor are reformed at high temperatures. Because this process mainly uses tail gas emitted from steel plants and can replace coal, it is called a method of recycling carbon.
Based on the blue blast furnace but exceeding its carbon reduction potential, SMS group is developing the Paul Wurth EASyMelt. This electrically assisted syngas smelting blast furnace is an alternative to the direct reduction process and a complementary building block to bridge the gap between iron ore supply and green steel demand. Based on blue blast furnace technology, EASyMelt can be achieved through the step-by-step implementation of several technical elements that together enable near-zero emission ironmaking.
The process is flexible in terms of energy input, increases resilience to supply shortages and market fluctuations, and can be adapted to a variety of situations. But most importantly, traditional sinter materials can still be used in EASyMelt, which avoids fierce competition for the limited supply of (high-grade) pellets. This versatility, along with its energy flexibility, translates into highly competitive operating costs.